The hottest infrastructure investment will become

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Infrastructure investment will become the key to future economic growth

some April national economic operation data released by the National Bureau of statistics on the 15th showed a moderate decline. According to the data, in April, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The national service industry production index increased by 8.1% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The total retail sales of social consumer goods was 2727.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; In January, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 14432.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in January

Xing Zhihong, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of national economic comprehensive statistics, said that although the growth rate of some economic indicators fell in April, the national economy as a whole continued to be stable and positive, and the trend of stable growth of major economic indicators remained unchanged. The cumulative growth rate of relevant indicators in January basically continued the steady growth trend since the first quarter. Taking industrial added value as an example, the cumulative growth rate in the month reached 6.7%, only 0% lower than that in the first quarter, and its structure is novel 1 percentage point. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in January was 10.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first quarter. Therefore, the data in April is a small fluctuation within a reasonable range and expected range

however, Xing Zhihong said that some new situations and problems have also emerged in the economic operation. For example, the problem of overcapacity in some industries is still prominent, the pressure to reduce overcapacity is large, and the price of raw materials and energy industry continues to rise, lacking sufficient support. At the same time, the development among regions is also uneven. In April, the growth rate of industrial added value above Designated Size in Northeast China was only 1.6%. In addition, the growth momentum of private investment needs to be further enhanced. Private investment increased by 6.9% in June, and the growth rate is still lower than the growth rate of national fixed asset investment. Therefore, we also need to strengthen the efforts to support the implementation of private investment policies, and the reform of simplifying administration and delegating power needs to be further deepened

many experts predict that the recovery of private investment needs a process, and infrastructure fixed asset investment is still one of the main driving forces of China's economic growth in 2017. Zhang Liqun, Vice Minister of the macroeconomic Department of the development research center of the State Council, said at the 2017 China Automotive forum held on the 15th that investment is expected to increase instead of decrease this year, and the growth rate is expected to increase to about 10%. The new urbanization and the "the Belt and Road" initiative will bring a large number of infrastructure construction tasks, and the replacement of local bonds and the promotion of PPP financing mode will significantly improve the financial security conditions. Therefore, infrastructure investment will maintain a high growth trend this year

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, believes that in the second quarter, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to maintain at the high level of the first quarter due to the impact of financing sources and rising costs. He said that the rapid growth of infrastructure investment since last year was mainly due to the rapid implementation of PPP projects in the largest overseas industrial park that Chinese enterprises have participated in the construction of worldwide. What will restrict the growth of 50Hz infrastructure investment in the future is precisely the slowdown of the implementation speed of PPP projects and the rise of financing costs. Since the amount of investment initiated by PPP projects has fallen after reaching a high point in January last year, the general cycle from initiation to implementation of PPP projects is 13 months, which indicates that the amount of investment launched by PPP will begin to callback after the first quarter of this year

it is worth mentioning that the retail sales of automobiles in April increased by 6.8% year-on-year, down 1.8 percentage points from last month. This trend is consistent with the data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers that the production and sales of the automobile industry fell in April

Dong Yang, executive vice president of China Automobile Industry Association, said that China's automobile industry still has huge room for development. The annual output is likely to reach 50million vehicles, nearly double the current one, including 40million vehicles sold at home and 10million vehicles sold overseas, an increase of more than 20million vehicles. He said that when evaluating the joint venture, the president of tri Mack pointed out: "in the next 20 years, about 35000 new aircraft will be put into use. Although the development speed of Chinese cars is relatively slow in the first four months of this year, the speed of Chinese car development will not be as low as the 4% growth rate in 2015, but will remain at about 7% in the next few years

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